Before we begin, Brace yourselves, this is going to hurt. Second, this post is long so be prepared (to break the monotony of continuous text in going to drop in a few cool pics for you to give you the strength to go through this long painful post).
P.S. This picture has nothing at all to do with the post.
In the 25 years after independence, Kenya has generally performed well but have we archived our potential?
Background
Widespread violence followed the 2007 election when both Mwai
Kibaki, who had won the presidency in 2002, and rival Raila Odinga
claimed victory. Months of negotiations resulted in a power-sharing
arrangement. The political situation remains unstable as the government
attempts to implement a new constitution. Corruption remains
commonplace. Kenya is the transportation, communication, and financial
hub of East Africa. Economic growth—hindered for decades by government
mismanagement, counterproductive economic policies, and corruption—was
improving before the post-election instability in 2007 and has picked up
again since 2009. Civil service reform has been slow, and the
government employs about one-third of the formal labor force. Nearly 80
percent of employment is informal. Agriculture accounts for about a
quarter of GDP and employs a majority of the population.
So how far have we come in the past 5 years?
Quick Facts
- Population:
- GDP (PPP):
- $66.0 billion
- 5.0% growth
- 4.5% 5-year compound annual growth
- $1,662 per capita
- Unemployment:
- Inflation (CPI):
- FDI Inflow:
Key facts about the Kenyan economy in end 2007:
* KENYA'S ECONOMY TOWARDS THE END OF 2007:
--
Kenya's economy grew 6.1 percent in 2006 compared with a revised growth
rate of 5.7 percent the previous year. The government expects it
between 6.9 and 7.0 percent in 2007.
-- World Bank figures show gross domestic product at $21.2 billion for 2006, with per capita income of about $580.
-- The shilling was trading at 63.35/45 against the dollar last week compared to a year low of 71.55/65 in January 2007.
--
Annual inflation rose to 11.8 percent in November from 10.6 percent in
October. Underlying inflation, which excludes food prices, stood at 5.8
percent in November.
* TOURISM AND OTHER SECTORS:
--
Kenya received more than $870 million from tourism in 2006, catapulting
it ahead of horticulture and tea as its biggest foreign currency
earner, with revenue topping $1 billion in 2007.
--
Manufacturing, accounting for about a tenth of GDP, grew 6.9 percent in
2006 and 7.4 percent during the first quarter of 2007, compared with
7.1 percent in the first quarter of 2006.
--
Agriculture -- representing a quarter of GDP -- expanded by 5.4 percent
in 2006 and by 12 percent in the first quarter of 2007, compared with
0.3 percent in the same period in 2006, boosted by tea production.
--
Kenya produced a total 108,701 tons of tea in the first quarter of
2007, up from 49,470 tons in the same period in 2006. However, coffee
production declined to 16,573 tons in the first quarter of 2007 from
17,606 tons a year before.
CORRUPTION & UNREST:
--
Kenya's business community says the country is losing 2 billion
shillings ($31.45 million) worth of taxes daily due to businesses being
shut, partly as a result of political unrest.
--
According to a survey of 78 companies by PricewaterhouseCoopers, more
than two-thirds of Kenyan companies have suffered from corruption or
other economic crimes in the past two years, losing an average of nearly
$300,000 each.
-- In 2006, the
IMF and World Bank delayed handing over millions of dollars in aid to
Kenya over graft scandals, but both institutions resumed lending in
2007.
Sources: Reuters; Government of Kenya; World Bank (www.worldbank.org)
Oh Look, another photo that has absolutely nothing to do with this post, keep reading...
Where We Stand Now.
Kenya’s economic freedom score is 57.5, making its economy the
103rd freest in the 2012 Index. Its score is virtually unchanged from
last year, with gains in monetary freedom and the control of government
spending offset by a significant loss of trade freedom. Kenya is ranked
13th out of 46 countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa region, and its
overall score is below the world average.
The foundations of
economic freedom are fragile and uneven across the country. Poor
protection of property rights and widespread corruption discourage
entrepreneurial activity. The rule of law is weak, and local courts are
subject to substantial political interference.
After several years
of strong economic growth, Kenya’s economic performance has
deteriorated, partly because of the global economic slowdown and also
because of the generally slow pace of efforts to improve regulatory
efficiency and open markets to international trade and investment.
Reforms in public finance management have continued, but progress has
been sluggish.
Rule of Law
Property Rights 30.0
Freedom From Corruption
21.0 t
Kenya’s judicial system, which is modeled on the British system,
remains weak and fails to provide strong protection for private property
rights. The independence of the courts is severely compromised, and the
judicial system is mired in incompetence, executive interference, and
corruption. The process for acquiring land titles is often
non-transparent and cumbersome. The new constitution promulgated in 2010
aims to root out corruption.
Limited Government
Government Spending 75.3
Fiscal Freedom 77.7
The top income and corporate tax rates are 30 percent. Other
taxes include a value-added tax (VAT) and a tax on interest, with the
overall tax burden amounting to 20.7 percent of total domestic income.
Government spending is equivalent to 28.7 percent of total domestic
output. The deficit has increased to over 5 percent of GDP, and public
debt has reached 52.3 percent of GDP.
Regulatory Efficiency
Business Freedom 61.7
Labor Freedom 63.3
Monetary Freedom 79.1
The implementation and enforcement of reforms to enhance
regulatory efficiency have been uneven. Launching a business still takes
more than the world averages of seven procedures and 30 days. A large
portion of the labor force is employed in the informal economy. Monetary
stability has weakened with rising inflation. The government continues
to regulate prices through agricultural marketing boards and state-owned
enterprises.
Open Markets
Trade Freedom 66.7
Investment Freedom 50.0
Financial Freedom 50.0
The trade weighted average tariff rate is quite high at 9.2
percent, and myriad non-tariff barriers further constrain freedom to
trade. The poor investment regime lacks efficiency and transparency,
discouraging investment activity. The financial sector remains
vulnerable to government influence and inadequate supervision. The state
owns or holds shares in several domestic financial institutions and
continues to influence the allocation of credit.
In comparison to our regional neighbors;
Regional Ranking
Our overall score is at 57.5 percent so yeah, tuko down.
KEY FINDINGS
- Kenya’s economy is stabilizing but still vulnerable.
At the end of 2011, the government increased interest rates and
lowered the fiscal deficit by curbing expenditures. These policy
actions helped to stabilize the economy.
- But more than ever, Kenya’s economy is out of balance. The
current account deficit has reached new record levels and could exceed
15 percent of GDP in 2012. Kenya needs to rebalance its economy,
increase savings and create more incentives for exports. In times of
economic turbulence, deepening EAC integration can serve as an
additional buffer for external shocks.
- For 2012 and 2013, the World Bank maintains its growth forecast of 5 percent.
However, another series of shocks could easily create renewed economic
turbulence, and slow down economic growth to 4.1 percent.
- The EAC is a dynamic region with one of the highest growth rates in the world. Deepening
EAC integration would lead to lower prices of goods and services. But
Kenya is not leading the way as much as it should. Kenya imposes more
regulations on its imports than do many other sub-Saharan African
countries, and actually more regulations on imports from EAC countries
than on imports from other countries.
- East Africa can feed itself if free trade is permitted to balance surplus and deficit countries.
Kenya is a food deficit country but maintains barriers to trade in
maize, wheat and sugar, which result in Kenya’s exceptionally high food
prices. Openness to agricultural trade would be a ‘win win’ for all
EAC countries. Kenyan consumers would pay less while famers in Tanzania
and Uganda would benefit from higher prices.
- Rapid growth in service exports offers hope to Kenya, and indeed other EAC countries, to improve deteriorating trade balances.
Removal of regulatory barriers that impede transport logistics and
restrict trade in goods and services can unlock latent potential and
reduce large current account deficits.
This was our GDP for the years after the PEV:
5% (2011 est.)
5.6% (2010 est.)
2.6% (2009 est.)
I wont deny it, we have tried, we have improved the PEV pulled us back we have tried our best to move on but is our best good enough?
The next five years will be the most decisive. We either make up for the ground we lost or we slump more and more to the point of no return, we were only lucky because of the global recession so other nations haven't made that much ground. At this rate the Vision 2030 will be just that, a dream.
KENYA Vs. Tanzania Vs United States GDP Growth
So basically at this rate we may never archive the dream Vision 2030.
The optimistic Gooner-
The Pessimist Gooner-When was the last time
Arsenal beat Manchester United, do you remember? When was the last
season Arsenal didn't sell a player they still needed, do you remember?
When was the last time you basked in glory for Arsenal, and felt like
you could shout Arsenal, Arsenal around in the streets for hours? I has
been a long time, hasn't it? Some people will put that time to be a
little more than seven years. What happening to Arsenal? We have gone
from playing Adams, Bould, Dixon and Winterburn to Vermaelen,
Mertesacker, Jenkinson and gibbs. From playing Henry, Pires, Bergkamp to
Podolski, Gervinho and Giroud. Where did the Arsenal who were going to
be the best in the world go? Clearly change is needed, change in
philosophy, personnel, board, if it still doesn't work out, maybe,
manager (Believe me, it hurts to even type that). The fans need to step
up, show the people there at Arsenal who is the boss, and for who this
show is running. The excuse of a new stadium is good enough for a year
of three, but 6 years hence, we need more than just some hope. One
marquee signing, one trophy, one season with no key players lost, we
need it all.
The world runs on
money and glory, doesn't it? So does football, and people go where both
go. The people concerned with money, the board, the players and staff,
go where money does (with the few exceptions in a hold of ridiculously
huge amount of money.) For a club, a board and its employees, the
reasonable option would be to follow the sustainable route of running a
club, the Arsenal way; and not throwing your life in the hands of a
single person with questionable wealth. But that's where glory steps in.
The glory of holding gold and trophies, the glory of owning a champion
team, the glory of being around the best in the world, and to compete to
be the best. Where did Arsenal go wrong, you ask? It tried to run
itself on only one aspect- the money. Sustainable in wealth, but not in
the balance of glory and money. Sustainable, but not shiny anymore. More
like a battle-hardened weapon, like a cannon, one which can be relied
upon, but not chosen when you absolutely need to be the best. Then you
choose tanks and jets. Clearly, we need to find the right balance
between the two wheels of being a successful club, a balance once
mastered by the Professor himself. How? Well, that's a broad question.
And would probably need an article of its own (or maybe a book)
